There are three certainties to life Down Under: The beers will be cold, the beaches will be golden, and people will grumble about air travel.

For years, thanks to a government policy that forbade more than two Australian airlines, Ansett Australia and flag-carrier Qantas Airlines have enjoyed a duopoly that has kept prices high and schedules almost identical. And service? Let's just say there's nothing like the famous Singapore Girl in Australia.

But all that could change if Singapore International Airlines CEO Cheong Choong Kong can close the deal of his career. Cheong has been spending a lot of time in Australia and New Zealand shaking the eucalyptus trees, hoping Air New Zealand falls into his lap. SIA already owns 25% of the airline, the maximum stake foreign companies are allowed under New Zealand law.

But Cheong has secured board approval to issue new shares and wants to buy a controlling stake in the airline. If he's successful, he'll be able to expand the SIA brand beyond Southeast Asia, which it already dominates.

It would also give SIA control of Ansett, since Air New Zealand bought media mogul Rupert Murdoch's 50% stake in the Aussie airline for $428 million last year. Ansett is a problem child for Air New Zealand: Its aging fleet seemingly spends as much time in the workshop as aloft. Since taking control of Ansett, Air New Zealand has seen annual profits fall, from $52 million in 1999 to less than $2 million last year. And Qantas, which has traditionally split the market with Ansett, has skipped away to a solid lead this year, with 55% of Australian airline traffic, compared with Ansett's 40%.

Auckland-based analyst Simon Botherway of Arcus Investment Management estimates Ansett will need about $2 billion for fleet renewal. And, he notes, "Air New Zealand doesn't have that kind of money." But SIA does. The airline is sitting on cash reserves of about $3 billion, which Cheong says he is willing to spend on turning Ansett around. "Everyone knows Ansett needs capital," Cheong says. "The longer this situation remains unresolved, the worse it will be."

SIA, 60% owned by the Singapore government, is one of the world's great airlines, excelling at in-flight innovation and service. It recently became the first airline to introduce in-seat Internet connections, which high-paying business travelers love. Last year it posted $800 million in profits.

In business terms, the SIA-Air New Zealand tie-up is a no-brainer. But it is hardly a done deal, thanks to politicians in New Zealand and Australia. Kiwis worry that a foreign-owned airline will treat their distant country like an afterthought, and New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark has said she sees "no compelling reason" to raise the maximum foreign-ownership level. Australian Prime Minister John Howard frets that a muscular SIA-ANZ-Ansett group will overpower Qantas.

Qantas CEO Geoff Dixon has seized on Singapore's tight connections between business and government--SIA's management and board are littered with Singapore military men. Dixon, who has launched his own bid for Air New Zealand, rails against a Singaporean "takeover by stealth" of key Australian assets. His comment has inflamed patriotic passions in Australia, coming as Singapore's government-owned Singapore Telecommunications is bidding for the big Aussie telephone company, Optus.

However the dispute is settled, the result promises to realign the aviation industry's developing global alliances. United Airlines has been mentioned as a possible SIA partner in a bid for Air New Zealand, which was an anchor member of the United-led Star Alliance. OneWorld, Star's rival that includes British Airways and Qantas, is backing Dixon's tilt at Air New Zealand.

The longer the drama plays out, the more unlikely it is that SIA's deal will go through. Singapore Inc.'s forays south come on the eve of an Australian election season. Although a date has yet to be set, politicians will be reluctant to make any controversial decisions. That's one more certainty of life Down Under