April 28, 2003

DEAD AIR

SARS sends aviation into a tailspin

APRIL has been the cruelest month for Asian airlines.

The double whammy of war and disease 'has annihilated our passenger bookings' Cathay Pacific Airways CEO David Turnbull lamented in an internal note to employees. Cathay, based in Hong Kong, one of the epicenters of the SARS virus, has reduced its normal schedule by more than a third.

The damage is not limited to Cathay. Since early March, shortly before the disease first blew its way into public notice, Japan Airlines' stock price has dropped 17.5%; Korean Airlines' 16.7%; Malaysia Airlines', 15.7% and Singapore Airlines', 7.8%. Cathay's is down more than 22%. Ironically, China's airlines may escape relatively unharmed, although as of April 10 the country has accounted for nearly half of all SARS cases worldwide and 55 deaths.. Public knowledge of the disease in China is sketchier, and the finances of its state-owned carriers are nearly as murky as health records in Guangdong province.

Not surprisingly, there's little demand to fly to places with high numbers of SARS victims. In Hong Kong, which has tallied more than 1,000 cases and 30 deaths, airport passenger traffic has plunged to 30,000 a day from 60,000 in early March. British Airways and Australia's Qantas Airways have stopped transiting through Hong Kong. New tourist bookings have all but ceased, and tours already scheduled have been canceled. One worrisome exception: travel groups from mainland China.

Korean carriers have cut back or eliminated flights to affected areas in China. Singapore Airlines has taken 199 flights off its schedule, 20% of pre-SARS capacity, and is not flying to Guangzhou at all for the time being. Qantas, United, Thai and Malaysia Airlines have all reduced the number of flights to the region.

Travelers bold enough to board Asia-bound carriers will find not so friendly skies. While the mystic of the Singapore Girl remains the focus of ad campaigns, its not quite the same when she's wearing a mask. Pilots and flight attendants on Cathay, Dragonair, United, China Air, and other airlines are also allowed to put on masks if they wish.

Getting on and off an airplane has become a fraught business. In Singapore expect to be grilled if you so much as sniffle. The government has stationed soldiers at Changi Airport to monitor incoming passengers. For flights to China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Vietnam, the Ministry of Health has posted nurses on the jetways to check out arriving passengers. If ground staff suspect a risk of SARS, the passenger has to be cleared by a doctor.

In Japan, which hasn't reported any cases, warning posters at Narita Airport urge travelers to report to health officials if they have any SARS-like symptoms - dry cough, fever, breathlessness. People diagnosed with SARS can hospitalized against their will.

Malaysia, which has had only a handful of cases, is even tougher. Health Minister Chua Jui Meng has said that Malaysian abroad who show SARS symptoms will not be allowed to return until they are cured. The government is also threatening passengers with jail time if they don't fess up to SARS symptoms. The Philippines has added 50 nurses to staff quarantine desks at immigration. Australia has added SARS to the list of quarantine diseases (along with things like the plague, cholera, yellow fever and rabies). This allows authorities to detain them into treatment. In Thailand, passengers disembarking from infected countries must run a gauntlet of health workers in masks and white lab coats checking for symptoms. Suspected SARS carriers can be hauled off to a prison for drug addicts recently spruced up for use as a quarantine center.

Airline officials say passengers and crew are no likelier than anyone else to get SARS - or to pass it on. Cabin air is dry, they say, and germs prefer a moist environment. Cabin air on Singapore Airlines planes is filtered and replaced every two minutes, much more often than in a typical building or even a hospital.

But the chances of disease on the ground, not in the air, is the biggest deterrent to travel. Until Asian health authorities can check the spread of SARS, the word to airlines is; Fasten your seltbelts - its going to be a bumpy year.