July 12, 2003

Power behind the throne: Mahathir Mohamad/Abdullah Badawi

Eric Ellis, Kuala Lumpur

BEING declared the official successor to Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia’s prickly prime minister, is like being handed a poisoned chalice.

Four of his heirs apparent have stumbled; the last, Anwar Ibrahim, famously fell out with the strongman in a dispute over how to deal with the country’s 1998 economic crisis. Anwar was later jailed for corruption and sodomy on charges that many say were contrived.

Emerging as the last man standing, Abdullah Badawi, the 63-year-old deputy prime minister, needs no reminding of his predecessors’ fates as he prepares to take over when Mahathir steps down in October. Abdullah, the son of a prominent state politician and Islamic scholar from Penang, began his political career in 1978, becoming MP for his father’s old district. His rise was swift. By 1981, he was in Mahathir’s first cabinet, overseeing religious affairs. In 1984, he was appointed to the fast-tracking post of education minister (three of Malaysia’s four leaders, including Mahathir, have held this portfolio, as did Anwar) and was elected a vice-president of United Malays National Organisation (Umno), the ruling party.

However, in 1987 Abdullah’s rise stalled. Then defence minister, he backed a challenge for the party leadership. It was a disastrous decision: the campaign failed and Mahathir fired Abdullah from his cabinet. Stranded in the political wilderness, Abdullah toured the country stressing loyalty to Mahathir while rebuilding his power base. By 1990, he’d been restored as a vice-president of Umno.

Though back in a position of influence, in his second political incarnation Abdullah had become a more servile politician. Throughout the 1990s he was an almost invisible foreign minister, as Mahathir cultivated the persona of the champion of the developing world.

In 1999, Abdullah was appointed deputy prime minister and minister for home affairs, a portfolio that administers the controversial Internal Security Act (ISA) which allows detention without trial for up to two years. The ISA is the baton Malaysia’s leaders have frequently employed to crack dissident heads, most notably Anwar’s.

Last month, Abdullah’s position as prime minister-in-waiting was given a boost when Umno’s three other vice-presidents pledged not to challenge his candidacy. What’s more, after an initially lukewarm embrace of his designated successor, in recent months Mahathir has publicly expressed his support.

Winning the backing of party colleagues was important because Abdullah is expected to serve only a single five-year term as prime minister. Partly this is a result of his age, but it is also because, though important, he is seen as a transitional figure for post-Mahathir Malaysia. As most of Mahathir’s senior advisers and aides will stay on, Abdullah is expected to oversee a smooth transfer of power by continuing many of the current government’s policies. But his less combative style may improve the standing of some democratic institutions, such as the judiciary. Abdullah is perceived as managing via consensus rather than by issuing orders.

But Mahathir’s is a tough act to follow. Malaysia was an economic backwater when he came to power in 1981, starved of the foreign investment that was transforming its neighbours, Singapore and Thailand, into Asian tigers. “Mahathirnomics” was all things to all investors, luring western technology giants with Malaysia’s abundant land and (then) cheap labour, while encouraging oil-enriched Arabs to diversify their petrodollars in the mostly Muslim nation. Today, Malaysia is one of Asia’s richest countries.

Abdullah understands the difficulty of his position. The one time when power seemed just minutes away, he went out of his way to plead with Mahathir to stay. That was at last year’s Umno party conference, when Mahathir unexpectedly announced his resignation. The conference hall was plunged into pandemonium and, an hour later, a blubbering Mahathir retracted his resignation, saying he that he would remain for a little while yet. The hall erupted with jubilation.

Despite Mahathir’s dominance, Abdullah is an important figure because the strongman has repeatedly asserted that when he steps down, two months before his 78th birthday, it will be a complete break. As he told the Financial Times last year: “It will be a clean retirement… I’ve had my day.” A month ago, Mahathir went further, assuring Malaysians that he will not become Malaysia’s “senior president”, an undiplomatic reference to Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s philosopher-king who “retired” as prime minister in 1990. In fact, he assumed the specially created post of “senior minister”, shadowing prime minister Goh Chok Tong and influencing key decisions.

While Abdullah might not be Malaysia’s most powerful politician, as Mahathir’s assured successor he will be vital in managing the transition to post-Mahathir Malaysia.